"Month by month, conventional indicators of inflation are inexorably shifting from highly benign to worrisome. Throughout this crisis, the only indicator that consistently gave the answer that is proving ultimately right was the price of gold."
Economic Barometer – 2/10 |
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~ R. David Ranson, President
and Director of Research
H.C. Wainwright & Co. Economics
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Play a brief audio introduction
from R. David Ranson, President and Director of Research.
Approximate runtime 3 minutes after download - broadband recommended.
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Publication Highlights as of March 1, 2010
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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 The Capitalist Perspective |
| In the 'closed' world economy, there are no imbalances |
| Popular economics harps on harmful "imbalances" of trade and capital flow among national economies. This is a political conception that obscures and mistakenly faults the economic process that is going on underneath. Read The Capitalist Perspective now without charge. [ Read ] |
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Interest-Rate Outlook |
| Industry selection in the high-yield bond market |
| With a 16-year history of returns from more than 35 sectors and sub-sectors of the high-yield bond market, it is possible to begin building a model to create "market forecasts" one year ahead. The first test produces a satisfactory result. |
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Equity-Market Outlook |
| How long will the market's rebound last? |
| Does the market's recovery have further to go? History suggests another 20 percent gain is likely in the coming year. |
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Strategic Asset Selector |
| Who "owns" the bullion in a precious-metal ETF? |
| The legal status of the bullion held by an ETF is surprisingly hard to pin down. Some of the gold in the GLD fund is undoubtedly a quantity that has been borrowed from central banks. The terms of these gold leases are undisclosed. |
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International Forecaster |
| Is it smart to buy dollars on favorable US economic news? |
| Many investors think that the dollar should be worth more when the US economy is stronger. Some even trade on this idea. But it doesn't work that way in practice. |
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Fixed-Income Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| The yield curve is likely to get even steeper. But we do not expect interest rates to rise dramatically this year despite rapid economic growth and continuing symptoms of inflation. The recent price "correction" in gold and other commodities is no more than an interruption in the inflationary trend. |
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Economic Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| Month by month, conventional indicators of inflation are inexorably shifting from highly benign to worrisome. Throughout this crisis, the only indicator that consistently gave the answer that is proving ultimately right was the price of gold. |
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Equity-Market Barometer |
| Highlights: |
| The market's pause and the dollar's rebound are both likely to be temporary. We expect 20 percent more from the equity market this year and further depreciation in the dollar, especially relative to commodities. |
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International Barometer |
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Foreign-exchange Value of the Dollar: Declining over the next couple of years.
Equity Markets:
Most favored - Argentina
Least favored - Hong Kong
Bond Markets:
Most favored - U.K.
Least favored - U.S.
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Get the stories behind the headlines here! |
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